The Influence of Meteorological Variables on the Occurrence of Deep Venous Thrombosis

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Published May 24, 2026
https://doi.org/10.62438/tunismed.v104i05.6557
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Vol. 104 No. 05 (2026): Tunis Med May 2026

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Ahmed Guiga
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Rahma Labiadh
Department of Family and Community Medicine, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Amel Amara
Department of Family and Community Medicine, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Asma Ghrissi
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Nouha Douss
Department of Family and Community Medicine, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Maissa Thabet
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Amal Bayya Chatti
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Amira Atig
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Wissal Ben Yahia
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Neirouz Ghannouchi
Department of Internal Medicine, Farhat Hached University Hospital, Ibn-Al Jazzar Faculty of medicine of Sousse, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia

Abstract

Background: Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) risk factors are well-established, yet meteorological influences remain debated, especially in North Africa.
Aim: We assessed associations between meteorological factors, seasonal patterns, and DVT incidence in central Tunisia.
Methods: This monocentric cross-sectional study included 211 patients with 217 ultrasound-confirmed DVT episodes (2009–2021) residing in Sousse or Kairouan. Meteorological data were obtained from national sources. Multivariate analysis adjusted for residence and the COVID-19 period (2020–2021).
Results: Idiopathic DVT accounted for 53.9% of cases, peaking in winter (p=0.010), while cancer-associated DVT peaked in summer (p=0.017). No significant differences emerged between Sousse and Kairouan residents. Months with DVT exhibited higher cloud cover (19.2% vs. 16.89%,p=0.032) and lower atmospheric pressure (1018.36 vs. 1020.13 hPa, p=0.042). Multivariate analysis confirmed increased cloud cover (aOR=1.04, p=0.046) and lower pressure (aOR=0.88, p=0.047) as independent risk factors. COVID-19 period incidence was higher (IRR=1.46, p=0.032) but did not alter meteorological associations. Summer 2021 heatwave analysis confirmed result stability.
Conclusion: Lower atmospheric pressure and greater cloud cover independently increase DVT risk in central Tunisia. Seasonal patterns vary by etiology. Despite pandemic-related incidence increases, meteorological associations remained robust, suggesting weather modulates thrombotic risk.

Keywords:

deep venous thrombosis, meteorology, venous thromboembolic disease, climate, environment, Tunisia

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